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And the graph does not mean there is no such thing as global warming. And yes, the start-date for the Pause has been inching forward, though just a little more slowly than the end-date, which is why the Pause continues on average to lengthen.

It is worth understanding just how surprised the modelers ought to be by the persistence of the Pause.

The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur.

The Pause – politically useful though it may be to all who wish that the “official” scientific community would remember its duty of skepticism – is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general-circulation models and observed reality.

The UAH dataset shows a Pause almost as long as the RSS dataset. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the GISS, Had CRUT4 and NCDC terrestrial monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly datasets shows global warming at a rate equivalent to 1.1 C° per century during the period of the Pause from January 1997 to September 2015.

However, the much-altered surface tamperature datasets show a small warming rate (Fig. Bearing in mind that one-third of the 2.4 W m radiative forcing from all manmade sources since 1750 has occurred during the period of the Pause, a warming rate equivalent to little more than 1 C°/century is not exactly alarming. Merely because there has been little or no warming in recent decades, one may not draw the conclusion that warming has ended forever.

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